Thursday, January 22, 2009

Middle East History, Middle East Future

If there are any doubts you may hold as to what lies in the future of the Middle East in the event this current opportunity for peace is missed, have a look at a history book.
By Claude Salhani.
First Published 2008-12-09
Courtesy Of Middle-East-Online

Predicting the future has always been one of humanity’s strongest desires since the beginning of time. To that end, we have employed a long line of scientists and charlatans who in turn have used everything from sophisticated mega-computers to magic. All have proven equally useless. There is however one method of predicting the future that has proven almost infallible, especially when it come to predicting the future in the Middle East; it’s called a history book.

Truth be told, history offers us an often untapped treasure trove of valuable data. For those who say that history has an uncanny habit of repeating itself are far from wrong. History does repeat itself more often than we care to remember, or admit.

Years ago, I recall reading a passage from a history book describing a battle between Saladin and the Crusaders and thinking that if one simply changed the date of the battle and the names of the generals, I could just have easily been reading the day’s top story on the front page of the International Herald Tribune or the New York Times.

History does repeat itself, and does offer us a rare glimpse into the future. But that is possible only if we are intelligent enough to understand the nuances -- and only if we are not so arrogant as to believe that we can fool history. History has time and again demonstrated it cannot be fooled. Neither can it be rewritten, although many have tried and continue to do so. (Note George Bush’s and his folks’ current reflections on Afghanistan and Iraq, and the other misfortunes of their administration.)

When it comes to Middle East politics, there is hardly a better guide to predicting the future than studying its past. Reading through the tumultuous history of the region, a pattern clearly emerges to show that politics in the Middle East -- as of course in other parts of the world -- is cyclical.

At certain times, an opportunity for peace presents itself -- as though the stars in the heavens had magically aligned themselves -- and advances in the otherwise stagnant peace process become tangible. Such was the case in 1977, when Egypt’s President Anwar Sadat undertook his historic voyage to Jerusalem and addressed the Israeli Knesset. Sadat’s peace initiative -- which ended up costing him his life -- led to a lasting peace between Egypt and Israel.

Since the start of the Arab-Israeli dispute some 60 years ago, there have been a number of such windows of opportunity, though few have led to the progress of peace. Peace with Egypt and peace with Jordan are but two examples of positive outcomes in what is otherwise a sea of turbulent negativity and escalating violence.

Today, as we near the end of 2008, the Middle East finds itself once again on the threshold of such an historic moment. All the forces are aligned in a manner that would permit a breakthrough in what appears as a comatose peace process.

“We have a window of opportunity -- a short amount of time before we enter an extremely dangerous situation -- in which to take a historic step in our relations with the Palestinians and a historic step in our relations with the Syrians,” Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert told the Israeli daily Yedioth Ahronoth earlier this year.

“In both instances, the decision we have to make is the decision we've spent 40 years refusing to look at with our eyes open. We must make these decisions,” said Olmert. “We must reach an agreement with the Palestinians, meaning a withdrawal from nearly all, if not all, of the [occupied] territories,” he said, adding that without this, “there would be no peace.”

As history has shown us, failure to advance the peace process will result in a dangerous relapse, creating greater militancy. Each time, the failed result catapults the Middle East into an even more dangerous cycle of violence. Because, once again, as history often shows, every new cycle of violence is genrally greater than the previous one.

The principal actors are all in agreement that peace is the only solution, yet they remain unable to move forward to the next step on their own. It is of paramount importance that the United States reclaims its role as principal peacemaker in the Middle East as soon as the Obama administration takes over (and would that it could even sooner).

Even though the routes on the Middle East Road Map currently appear to lead to dead ends, a breakthrough must be reached in the Middle East, or once again we will witness renewed violence, with worse consequences. If there are any doubts you may hold as to what lies in the future of the Middle East in the event this current opportunity for peace is missed, have a look at a history book.

Claude Salhani is editor of the Middle East Times and a political analyst in Washington.

Copyright © 2008 Claude Salhani

(Distributed by Agence Global)

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